Post by Wikistrat

💡 Washington assumes a weak #Iran deal pushes #SaudiArabia toward normalization with #Israel. ❌ Eight leading #Gulf experts we surveyed disagree. A few other findings from our recent expert panel: ➡️ 7 of 8: The #UAE will not quietly accept a deal leaving Iran with de facto control of the Strait of #Hormuz. ➡️ 8 of 8: If Iran refuses #ballistic missile limits, the Gulf states escalate militarily within three years. No dissenters. ➡️ Sharpest split on the panel: whether Saudi Arabia pursues #nuclear weapons within a decade. Three call it near-certain. Two call it unlikely. Negotiators are set to meet again this weekend, and President #Trump told Axios on Friday he expects a deal "in the next day or two." Whatever Washington and Tehran sign will set Gulf security through the 2030s, and the assumptions behind U.S. policy may not hold up against what the region is actually planning. Full report in the comments 👇