Post by Thomas O'Donnell, PhD

My TRT: Trump & G7 agree focus on Ukraine v Russian oil. ~ After Iran war, again Putin’s only real buyer is China. Watch - click link, not picture: https://lnkd.in/dnzRDw4J I explained that the price cap was de facto abandoned, replaced by the Americans in 2025 with a campaign aimed at actually removing Russia’s capacity to export its seaborne oil. This campaign was de facto paused, first when they went after Venezuelan oil, and then during the war against Iran and the closure of the Straight of Hormuz. However, the G7, including Trump, decided that they would focus again on pressuring Putin to end Russia’s war on Ukraine. Their decision was to focus now on sanctioning Russia’s oil and gas exports. I explained how, just before Trump et al went after Maduro, in January, the Russian oil system had been pushed to the brink of a breakdown. This had been accomplished by a combination of the Ukrainian drone strikes deep inside Russia, particularly on oil infrastructure, a campaign conducted with detailed intelligence and targeting information provided by the USA, and by the imposition of sweeping new US sanctions Trump imposed on Rosneft and Lukoil and also by his having gotten Modi to agree that India would end the purchase of Russian oil. [See my study for EIES, Jan. 2026, “Liquidating the Russian Petrostate” or on GlobalBarrel.com] It should be easy to return to this state of affairs where Russia was starting to run out of places to sell its oil and was having to load it onto ships having no customers, as its ports had been pushed to near 100% capacity. This raised the possibility that it would be forced to shut off some of its delicate W. Siberian oil fields. In any case, any inability to sell barrels of oil is much more devastating than a difficult-to-enforce oil price cap. We should see soon if this is the strategy the USA intends to return to. Best, Dr. Tom O’Donnell — Available for talks, executive or ministerial consults, analysis. twod(at)umich.edu Nataly Lutsenko Irina Kustova Andreas Umland Dr. Frank Umbach Mark Voyger Honorata Nyga-Łukaszewska Zuzanna Nowak Peter Flory Joseph Dresen Clay Seigle Clayton Scott Ben Hodges Agata Loskot-Strachota Dr. Dirk Radies choeib boutamine Thomas Kleine-Brockhoff Rachel Herp Tausendfreund Daniela Schwarzer Norbert Röttgen Erik Magdanz Marcin Król Albéric Mongrenier Isabelle Dupraz Dan Martinez Morten Frisch Ghassan Dagher Robert Benson Christof Rühl John Kemp Javier Blas