Post by Thomas O'Donnell, PhD

Click link, not graphic: https://lnkd.in/eiB5SjWz One problem with giving a quick take on breaking news is that one can forget something. In the interview, I forgot about the US dollar swap line that the UAE had cajoled out of the USA –Trump and Bessent – just before it decided to quit OPEC. Below is the post I immediately wrote with many, IMHO, relevant issues underlying this move. These include national economic and geostrategic differences, often rather sharp, between the UAE and Saudis. However, the swap line issue is now included as point “Zero”. -0.a- Regarding the swap line: there are so many pieces in motion that we need a litte overview refresher first. As readers here know, my analysis is that the Trump administration’s sharp moves in the latter part of 2025 against Russian oil exports, together with the Ukrainians’ drone campaign, was at a point where it had begun threatening to force Russian oil exports offline. This, in turn, would force Russia to shut in its old and delicate West Siberian fields. I wrote a detailed study on this. This strategy is exactly like what the USA now openly says it intends to do to Iran by blocking exports from its Kharg Island oil terminal. -0.b- You will recall that Trump constrained and/or convinced India’s Modi to halt Russian oil imports as part of this larger anti-Russian oil campaign to press Putin to end the Ukraine war. ... *CONTINUED AT LINK* . Nataly Lutsenko Irina Kustova Andreas Umland Dr. Frank Umbach Mark Voyger Honorata Nyga-Łukaszewska Zuzanna Nowak Peter Flory Joseph Dresen Clay Seigle Clayton Scott Ben Hodges Agata Loskot-Strachota Dr. Dirk Radies choeib boutamine Thomas Kleine-Brockhoff Rachel Herp Tausendfreund Daniela Schwarzer Norbert Röttgen Erik Magdanz Marcin Król Albéric Mongrenier Isabelle Dupraz Manuel Silva-Ferrer Dan Martinez Morten Frisch Ghassan Dagher Robert Benson Christof Rühl John Kemp