Post by Patrecia S.

Fresh industry association data. SEMI dropped its 2025 global equipment numbers this week and very interesting. Europe spent $2.9 billion on semiconductor equipment last year. Taiwan spent $31.5 billion (up sharply in a single year). Together, Taiwan, South Korea, and China now account for 79% of global equipment spend. Europe's share is down 41% for the second year running. Here's why that is pretty interesting for me. A few weeks ago I wrote about an Infineon VP standing at a conference in Sopot and saying what many already sensed: Europe's power chip lead is under pressure, and the EU Chips Act is focused on the wrong race. His asked for an automated 300mm wafer plants to compete on cost. Not just cutting-edge logic. The everyday chips in every EV, factory motor, and data center power system. The SEMI data is his slide deck. In one number. Here's what makes this week's data land differently: Last week, a bi-partisan group of U.S. lawmakers introduced the MATCH Act. Its a bill that would restrict ASML from selling and servicing some of its older DUV tools to China's top chipmakers. Not just the advanced tools. The ones ASML still sells. Per various sources, China was 33% of ASML's revenue in 2025. That's expected to drop to 20% this year. The MATCH Act, if passed, could compress that window further and push allied governments to align their rules within 150 days. ASML shares dropped over 4% the day markets reopened after the announcement. At the same time, SMEE (China's state-backed answer to ASML) walked onto the SEMICON China floor this week and claimed its DUV scanner now reaches 10nm and is shipping commercially. Reading some information, the 10nm claim is unverified. Yield data doesn't exist yet. But the architecture SMEE described (direct-drive wafer stages, ArF laser, dual-stage scanning) is real engineering, not a tradeshow prop. But also I think that mass production at foundry scale is a completely different game from a tradeshow floor demo. ASML faces challenges from both directions simultaneously: a legislated ceiling on its China revenue, and a domestic Chinese competitor rising from below. Europe's answer so far: Infineon's €5 billion 300mm fab in Dresden, opening in fall 2026. One fab. A 64-company ChipNL coalition in the Netherlands proposing a €315 million innovation still waiting for government co-financing. One approved fab. One waiting program. Forty-one percent down. I wrote earlier that "still leads" is not a strategy. The SEMI data isn't a warning anymore. It's a scoreboard. #Semiconductors #Geopolitics #SupplyChain #ASML #Infineon