Post by Luis Noronha

The AI got the cranes wrong! Lol — Lennar and D.R. Horton don't build with tower cranes. The dynamic in the middle of the picture is right. Florida residential permits are down 31% from the 2021 peak. The volume that's left is concentrated at the top: Lennar at ~1,111 Florida permits in early 2026, D.R. Horton at 690, Pulte at 379. Lennar's Q1 2026 sales incentives ran at 14% of sales price against a 4–6% historical average — funded by captive mortgage subsidiaries no regional builder can match. The 2025 Florida builder-failure list reads accordingly: Pegasus Builders (45 years), Sion Homes (20+ years), Van Der Valk, Phil Kean Designs. Not amateurs. The honest read: Florida new construction is splitting into two viable lanes — the merchant-build tier, the "publics" will keep dominating, and the custom-spec, code-current, cash-buyer tier they structurally don't serve. Everything in between is getting squeezed. Full piece in this week's FL Real Estate Insider. DM if you want the link.