Post by Lloyd Axworthy, PC, CC, OM, Ph.D.

Four Years Since Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine: What It Means for the World Order February 24, 2022 didn’t just mark the start of a devastating war. It marked the end of a set of assumptions that had shaped global security, trade, and diplomacy for decades. Four years on, the strategic picture is worth taking seriously. The nature of warfare has fundamentally changed. As Valerii Zaluzhnyi — former Ukrainian commander, now Ambassador to London — has observed, autonomous drones and algorithmic decision-making have displaced traditional military doctrine. Democracies that aren’t adapting now will be dangerously behind. The transatlantic alliance is under pressure it hasn’t faced since its founding. The current US administration has treated collective defence as a bargaining tool rather than a commitment. The downstream effects on deterrence are real. And a broader realignment is underway. Europe and Canada are moving toward greater defence self-sufficiency. Across the Global South, new coalitions are forming in energy, technology, and trade that increasingly bypass traditional power centres. The post-1945 order isn’t just fraying — something new is being built in its place. For those of us in business, policy, or public life, the question isn’t whether this shift affects us. It does. The question is whether we’re paying attention. Ukraine’s four-year stand has bought time — for Europe, for democracy, for the construction of a more resilient international order. The least we can do is use it wisely.