Post by Laurence Tubiana

The crisis in the Gulf is a brutal reminder of how fragile fossil fuel supply chains are. For Europe, energy security depends on reducing exposure to that fragility. Only clean energy – backed by investment in efficiency, grids and storage – can deliver the autonomy and security we need to strengthen our resilience and guarantee our sovereignty. Gas prices soared 50%, as Qatar closed its major LNG plants and marine insurers withdrew coverage for LNG tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Qatar accounts for 20% of global LNG production. If this crisis persists, the ripple effects will be felt around the world, with the risk of political destabilisation and economic recession. ​​Europe has seen this before. Oil and gas imports have been weaponised, including by those we once assumed were reliable partners. During the last gas crisis, oil and gas companies booked record profits while households, businesses and public budgets absorbed the shock. Why repeat the mistake? Expanding gas production in Europe would not change the equation.  Fossil infrastructure – ports, pipelines, power plants, shipping lanes – is exposed and increasingly targeted by Europe’s adversaries. And whether gas is produced in Europe or imported, its price is set on global markets. Domestic production does not insulate Europe from volatility. It locks it in. In an era of structural instability, tying your economy to hydrocarbons magnifies every crisis. The only durable way to reduce exposure is to use less oil and gas. That means choosing to step off the fossil treadmill, instead of waiting for the next shock to knock us off balance again. My thoughts are with the people across the region and beyond who are living through fear and violence – above all, Iranians, who fought, and are still fighting, for their liberty.