Post by The Lancet Infectious Diseases

🆕Modelling study from the WHO Regional Office for Africa predicts size and cross-border transmission risk for the Bundibugyo virus (BDBV) outbreak in DR Congo. 💡Dick Chamla and colleagues calibrated a stochastic SEIRD (susceptible, exposed, infectious, recovered, and dead) ensemble model to cumulative lab-confirmed BDBV cases in DR Congo, anchoring on 598 confirmed cases by June 8, 2026, and projecting cases for three transmissibility scenarios over 24 weeks. Additionally, they modelled importation risk to Uganda, South Sudan, Rwanda, and Burundi over a 12-week time horizon to guide preparedness priorities. 📊As of June 22, the confirmed-case trajectory was most consistent with the central transmission scenario (actual 1048 vs predicted 990 [90% prediction interval 709–1293] by June 24), which would lead to ~8000 cases by September. Importation risk was predicted to be very high for Uganda (94·2%), where the outbreak is now firmly established, and for South Sudan (69·3%). 🔦The study shows how such modelling can leverage limited data to predict cross-border spread and inform regional preparedness.  Read the full paper here: https://lnkd.in/d74yDsxm #Ebola #Bundibugyo #PandemicPreparedness #Outbreak #Modelling Dick Chamla, Marie Roseline Darnycka BELIZAIRE, Isaias Fernandes Co, Arisekola Jinadu, Ibrahim Mamadu MD, MPH, Ajiri Atagbaza