Post by The Lancet Infectious Diseases

🆕 Estimation of the Ebola outbreak size in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). 📊 Ruth McCabe and colleagues used two independent modelling techniques for estimating the scale of the Ebola outbreak in DRC. The first modelling technique used an analytical framework linking reported suspected and confirmed deaths, of which authors assumed a proportion is due to Ebola, with estimates of the case fatality ratio (33% [95% CI 26–40]; defined as the proportion of patients who die as a result of a Bundibugyo virus infection) and the time from symptom onset to death (gamma distribution mean 11·37 days [SD 5·41]) derived from previous Bundibugyo virus outbreaks. The second method used geographical spread and population movement data, looking at number of cases exported to Uganda to estimate the number of cases in the source population. Authors made plausible assumptions about the surveillance, severity, and growth of the outbreak. 📢 ‘These two simple methods yielded broadly consistent results suggesting that as of May 27, 2026, approximately 280–2520 cases of Bundibugyo virus disease might have occurred in DRC (estimate range 306–2521 with the back-calculation model and 282–1345 with the geographical spread model); however, there is considerable uncertainty around these estimates’. 💡 Findings highlight considerable knowledge gaps in the current outbreak and point to possibly substantially undetected transmission of Bundibugyo virus disease in the east of DRC. A rapid targeted public health response, urgent medical support for affected and those at risk, and strong international coordination are essential. Read in full here: https://bit.ly/4unCVsp #Ebola, #outbreak, #Bundibugyo Lennox Kesington Ebbarnezh, Solome Okware, Richard Fotsing, Etien Luc Koua, PhD, Paul Mbaka, Adelard Lofungola, Dav Ebengo, PLACIDE MBALA, Tania Bishola, PhD, Christian Ibolobolo, Herman M Matondo, Jean-Clement M Sibo, Sabine L. van Elsland, Martina McMenamin, Neil Ferguson, Olivier le Polain de Waroux, anne cori