Post by Ilhan Kilic

📢 𝗡𝗲𝘄 𝗣𝘂𝗯𝗹𝗶𝗰𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 📄 𝘛𝘩𝘦 𝘓𝘢𝘯𝘨𝘶𝘢𝘨𝘦 𝘰𝘧 𝘜𝘯𝘤𝘦𝘳𝘵𝘢𝘪𝘯𝘵𝘺: 𝘙𝘦𝘢𝘥𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘛ü𝘳𝘬𝘪𝘺𝘦’𝘴 𝘌𝘤𝘰𝘯𝘰𝘮𝘪𝘤 𝘗𝘶𝘭𝘴𝘦 𝘛𝘩𝘳𝘰𝘶𝘨𝘩 𝘎𝘦𝘰𝘱𝘰𝘭𝘪𝘵𝘪𝘤𝘢𝘭 𝘍𝘰𝘨 I’m delighted to share that our paper, co-authored with my dear colleague Professor Faruk Balli, has just been accepted for publication in 𝘛𝘩𝘦 𝘞𝘰𝘳𝘭𝘥 𝘌𝘤𝘰𝘯𝘰𝘮𝘺. In this study, we introduce the first 𝗚𝗲𝗼𝗽𝗼𝗹𝗶𝘁𝗶𝗰𝗮𝗹 𝗖𝗼𝘂𝗻𝘁𝗿𝘆-𝗦𝗽𝗲𝗰𝗶𝗳𝗶𝗰 𝗨𝗻𝗰𝗲𝗿𝘁𝗮𝗶𝗻𝘁𝘆 (𝗚𝗖𝗦𝗨) index for Türkiye — a novel approach that leverages AI-powered Natural Language Processing (NLP) on Turkish-language newspapers. Unlike existing indices based on English-language sources, our localized methodology captures country-specific uncertainty with greater precision and relevance. To assess the real-economy effects of both our newly constructed index and the English-based measure, we employed two complementary approaches: 𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗵𝗼𝗴𝗼𝗻𝗮𝗹 𝗶𝗺𝗽𝘂𝗹𝘀𝗲-𝗿𝗲𝘀𝗽𝗼𝗻𝘀𝗲 𝗮𝗻𝗮𝗹𝘆𝘀𝗶𝘀 𝗳𝗿𝗼𝗺 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝘀𝘁𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻𝗮𝗿𝘆 𝗩𝗔𝗥 and 𝗶𝗺𝗽𝘂𝗹𝘀𝗲-𝗿𝗲𝘀𝗽𝗼𝗻𝘀𝗲 𝗲𝘀𝘁𝗶𝗺𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝘃𝗶𝗮 𝗹𝗼𝗰𝗮𝗹 𝗽𝗿𝗼𝗷𝗲𝗰𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻𝘀. 📉 Key Findings: • An unexpected increase in geopolitical uncertainty (as gauged by the GCSU) significantly reduces 𝗲𝗺𝗽𝗹𝗼𝘆𝗺𝗲𝗻𝘁, 𝗽𝗿𝗼𝗱𝘂𝗰𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻, 𝘁𝗿𝗮𝗱𝗲, 𝗰𝗼𝗻𝗳𝗶𝗱𝗲𝗻𝗰𝗲, and 𝘀𝘁𝗼𝗰𝗸 𝗺𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁 𝗽𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗲𝘀, • while 𝗶𝗻𝗳𝗹𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 and 𝗼𝗶𝗹 𝗽𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗲𝘀 increases in response. • Interestingly, these effects are 𝗻𝗼𝘁 𝗮𝗹𝘄𝗮𝘆𝘀 𝘃𝗶𝘀𝗶𝗯𝗹𝗲 when uncertainty is measured using English-based index, the GPR-Türkiye. 🎯 This paper marks a first in this regard — both in terms of methodology and empirical insights — and we are genuinely happy to contribute to this growing area of research. Heartfelt thanks to Professor Richard Kneller (Editor), our anonymous reviewers, and Professor Wojciech Charemza for their insightful and generous feedback. 🔓 The paper is 𝗼𝗽𝗲𝗻 𝗮𝗰𝗰𝗲𝘀𝘀 and can be read here: https://lnkd.in/d8sU4SVK #research #economics #uncertainty #geopolitics #AI #NLP #Türkiye #TheWorldEconomy #macroeconomics #academicpublication