Post by D.TRADING

Energy markets never stand still and neither do we! In "Markets in Motion", we share our perspective on the key developments shaping Europe's #energy #landscape, from geopolitical events and regulatory changes to market fundamentals and emerging trends. This week: The market calm and bearish sentiment that dominated the second half of June gave way to renewed volatility as the conflict in the Middle East intensified. During the second week of July, market sentiment deteriorated following renewed US-Iran military strikes and attacks on commercial vessels in the #StraitofHormuz, reigniting concerns over the security of global oil and #LNG supply chains. • On 13 July 2026, US President Donald #Trump announced the reinstatement of a blockade on Iranian shipping, preventing Iranian vessels from entering or leaving the #Gulf, and proposed a 20% fee on future cargoes transiting the Strait of Hormuz. • The latest #escalation has significantly increased the geopolitical risk premium across energy markets. Front-month TTF has risen to around €53/MWh, while Brent crude has rebounded to approximately USD 87/bbl, reflecting growing concerns over prolonged disruptions to energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz. • European gas storage has recovered to 52%, but remains 17 percentage points (11.3 bcm) below last year's level. Despite the start of Q3 and the near-completion of Norwegian #maintenance, injection rates remain more than 20% below the five-year average. Persistent backwardation in the TTF forward curve continues to discourage storage injections. At the current pace, Europe risks entering the heating season with storage levels only marginally above the emergency threshold of 75%, well below the regulatory target of 90%. • Ukraine remains an exception, with gas storage volumes 4 bcm (45%) higher year-on-year. • Expectations of a global LNG oversupply have shifted from 2027 to 2028, delaying the anticipated easing of market tightness and adding further uncertainty to Europe's winter preparedness. Questions we're watching: ➡️ Will Europe reach 80% gas storage before winter? ➡️ Will EU regulators intervene to support storage injections? Let us know what you think in the comment section! #MarketsInMotion #EnergyMarkets #NaturalGas #LNG #TTF #EnergySecurity #Europe #DTRADING