Post by Daejin Lee

#IRGC #TOLL vs #BILATERAL #ARRANGEMENT - AIS may tell you something via #South and #North #Larak: The Idemitsu Maru, a Japanese VLCC carrying approximately 2 million barrels of crude oil loaded at Saudi Arabia's Ras Tanura, became the first Japanese crude tanker to transit the Strait of Hormuz since the outbreak of war on February 28 Iranian state media Tasnim, linked to the IRGC, described the passage as facilitated "with coordination from Iran" — language that industry observers widely interpreted as implying the IRGC toll system was in operation. However, the Japanese government and Nikkei have explicitly denied that any toll was paid, describing the transit as the result of direct high-level diplomatic negotiations between Tokyo and Tehran. Proprietary AIS monitoring adds a important detail: the Idemitsu Maru transited via the #south of #Larak Island route, passing without any pause or stop for IRGC inspection — a departure from the standard north-of-Larak corridor where toll processing and escort assignment typically occur. This routing is consistent with a pre-cleared government-to-government passage arrangement rather than a commercial IRGC toll transaction, and aligns with Japan's stated position. #D61 What I am watching #TRUMP DISSATISFIED WITH IRAN HORMUZ PROPOSAL — RUBIO: "NOT OPENING THE STRAITS" — NYT (multiple sources briefed): Trump told advisors he is NOT satisfied. Rubio: Iran wants to maintain control of the sea lane — "those are international waterways." Nuclear red line firm. Iran's Hormuz deal effectively dead on arrival #BRENT $111.26 (+3% TUE CLOSE) / WTI $99.93 (+3%) — WTI NEAR $100 — Highest since early war peak. Gas $4.11. Even if war ended tomorrow: only $10/bbl drop, 4-6 months to stabilize (Lipow). ING: "market tightening every day" #GOLDMAN SACHS 4TH UPGRADE — Q4 2026 BRENT $90 / WTI $83 — WARNS $120 POSSIBLE — Track: $66 → $71 → $80 → $90. Recovery timeline pushed to end-June. 9.6 mb/d Q2 deficit. Inventories heading to lowest since 2018. "Unprecedented scale of shock." Energy sector XLE +29% YTD #UAE ANNOUNCES #OPEC #EXIT — EFFECTIVE FRIDAY — Major structural development. UAE to produce freely outside OPEC quotas. Has pipeline alternative to Hormuz. OPEC+ had pledged +206k bpd to offset war shortages #MILITARY — Ceasefire formally holding. 4 ships Hormuz Tue. CENTCOM: 37 ships turned back. Israel ordered 16 Lebanese towns to evacuate. Lebanon 2,509+. Iran 3,375+. Total ~6,000+ #MARKETS — Brent $111.26 / WTI $99.93. Gas $4.11. Goldman Q4 $90 (4th upgrade). 9.6 mb/d deficit. Goldman recession risk 30%. UAE exits OPEC #WHAT COMES NEXT — Nuclear red line = no Hormuz deal. UAE ramps outside OPEC. Goldman sees $90-120 range. Toll system institutionalizing. Key question: Can any nuclear bridge proposal emerge — or does Goldman's $120 scenario materialize? #StraitOfHormuz #SOH #News #Commodity #Shipping #Freight #Maritime #Oil #gas #fertilizer #grain #market #analysis #forecast