Post by Cordoba Research Group

Uzbekistan’s latest Q1 2026 data continues to support the view we set out in our recent note on the country’s financial sector. GDP grew 8.7% year-on-year, while services expanded 16.1% and retail trade rose 25.4%. Small businesses now make up 45.6% of GDP, which links closely to something we mentioned previously - SMEs are becoming more and more important to Uzbekistan’s growth outlook. The economy is still being supported by reform, investment and state-led development, but a wider private sector is also forming across trade, financial services, transport, retail and early-stage business activity. Uzbekistan remains under-covered relative to the pace of change taking place in the economy. Growth is broadening, SMEs are becoming more important, and the financial system is gradually becoming deeper. Potential WTO membership could also support the next stage of growth, with the World Bank estimating that accession could lift GDP by up to 17% if reforms continue. Concurrently, tighter rules from the Central Bank around suspicious transactions, card transfers, wallets and customer checks suggest that policymakers are trying to build stronger governance as the market opens further. Our latest Uzbekistan note was mainly based on 2025 data, especially around the banking system, liquidity and fintech development. What we are seeing in 2026 so far seems to reaffirm that view. Capital remains supportive, with CAR at 17.4%, CET1 at 14.6% and D-SIB LCR at 172%. Fintech activity is also becoming more visible, with names such as Tezbank with Hamkorbank and ZoodPay showing how competition is gradually developing outside the traditional banking model. At Cordoba Research Group, our view remains broadly positive on Uzbekistan, while we continue to monitor data releases closely. We will keep publishing research on the country’s banks, fintechs, reform progress and wider macro outlook as the market develops. #CordobaResearchGroup #Uzbekistan #CentralAsia #EmergingMarkets #Fintech #MacroResearch