Post by Cordoba Research Group

“Kazakhstan’s economy remains in a relatively strong position, but the easy part of the growth cycle appears to be behind it. Growth has slowed from 6.5% in 2025 to 3.0% in Q1 2026, while policymakers are increasingly balancing weaker activity against persistent inflation pressures. The key question now is whether fiscal stimulus and monetary policy can work together rather than pulling in opposite directions.” 📌 In this note, Cordoba Research Group looks at: - Why Kazakhstan’s growth has slowed following disruptions at Tengiz and the CPC pipeline - What rising Stage 3 loans mean for the banking sector and why upcoming Q2 results matter - How expansionary fiscal policy is complicating the National Bank of Kazakhstan’s disinflation efforts - Whether Kazakhstan’s attractive carry opportunities outweigh the risks around inflation, oil dependence and policy divergence 📩 Read the note here: https://lnkd.in/eXQT56u8 #Kazakhstan #EmergingMarkets #FixedIncome #CentralAsia #MacroEconomics #CordobaResearchGroup