Post by Brasil Sugar International

Sugar prices are expected to remain stuck at current levels for the next few months. Global demand remains weak, while the arrival of the Brazilian harvest increases supply. Globo Rural - 5 Jun 2026 The price of sugar is still unable to find a firm direction to move, either up or down, given the still weak signs of global demand and a supply that is now entering the market from the ongoing harvest in the Center-South of Brazil. Although analysts are revising their estimates for the balance between global supply and demand, any change in fundamentals is not expected in the short term. On Thursday, the 11th, Czarinkow – a trading company that had been releasing the most bearish projections for the market – revised its global balance sheet estimate for the 2025/26 cycle from a large surplus to a small deficit of 100,000 tons. The adjustments were made primarily to the estimate for Brazilian production, where mills are maximizing ethanol production to escape low sugar prices. Czarnikow has reduced its estimate for Brazilian production to 39.5 million tons, resulting from a projected mix of 47%, not 48%, which means a reduction of 500,000 tons in the commodity's supply. The trading firm also revised its estimate for Mexican production downwards, and forecasts stable production in other countries such as India, Thailand, and China. Although the United States climate agency, NOAA, has confirmed the formation of El Niño , with a high probability of a strong event later this year, the phenomenon is not expected to impact the harvest in the Center-South region, which usually ends between October and November. The "strong" configuration is only expected to occur from November onwards, according to NOAA. The impact of El Niño may be more significant in India, but the country is still in its off-season, and any impact of the weather on production will only be felt in a reduced supply flow to the market starting in October. On the other hand, consumption "remains sluggish," noted analyst Gerard Honer, who authored an analysis published by the trading firm. He attributed this phenomenon to increased awareness about product consumption, the impact of food inflation on consumer behavior, and the rise of appetite-suppressing weight-loss medications. Due to these factors, Czarnikow reduced its estimate for global consumption by 300,000 tons. Even so, the total estimated consumption volume represents an increase of 1.1 million tons compared to the previous harvest. Among the signs of weak global demand are Brazilian sugar export data for April and May, which resulted in a 23.8% increase in local stocks, noted analyst Ricardo Sigalla of StoneX in a report released this Thursday. In short, the scenario is tighter, but still "stable," according to Czarnikow – much to the dismay of Brazilian mills, which have no alternative but to produce ethanol to try to escape losses. Camila Souza Ramos Brasil Sugar International [email protected] +1 248 939 2646