Post by Baringa

Is the market pricing in a recovery that hasn't actually happened yet? Headlines say the energy crisis is over. A deal is signed, the Strait is reopening, and oil has slipped back below $80. But a signature is not a barrel, and our analysis suggests the gap between sentiment and supply is where the real risk now sits. The signals we're watching: - A deal has been reached, but physical flows are expected to recover only slowly and partially. - Clearing the vessel backlog through Hormuz is expected to take weeks, not days, with phased, priority-based access rather than a clean switch-on. - Producers won't fully restart until a durable, lasting open strait is assured, meaning the risk premium doesn't simply disappear on signing. Markets are pricing this as resolved. Our analysis suggests that without the deal quickly unlocking significant physical volumes, we face escalating price risk, not the easing the headlines imply. If recovery stalls or the ceasefire wobbles, the path back is sharper inflation, weaker growth and rising unemployment risk. For businesses, this isn't just a macro story. It's what sits behind your planning assumptions: - energy costs - demand outlook - supply chain resilience - sector exposure The critical question: What happens to your business if the volumes don't return as fast as prices are assuming? We’ve explored the scenarios and implications in our latest macro outlook. Link in the comments.