Post by Amsterdam UMC - Orthopedic Surgery and Sports Medicine

📢 𝗡𝗲𝘄 𝗽𝗮𝗽𝗲𝗿 𝗽𝘂𝗯𝗹𝗶𝘀𝗵𝗲𝗱 𝗶𝗻 𝗣𝗟𝗢𝗦 𝗢𝗡𝗘  Recently, a new article on “Musculoskeletal surgeons use mixed reasoning rather than pure Bayesian strategies in clinical practice” has been published in PLOS ONE. The study investigates how surgeons make clinical decisions under uncertainty, and whether they apply Bayesian reasoning when updating probabilities in diagnostic and treatment scenarios. 🔍 𝗠𝗮𝗶𝗻 𝗳𝗶𝗻𝗱𝗶𝗻𝗴𝘀 • Surgeons often use mixed reasoning strategies, combining Bayesian and non-Bayesian approaches depending on the clinical context. • Only about 29% of responses reflected fully Bayesian reasoning, while a substantial proportion showed partial or heuristic-based reasoning (e.g., base rate neglect). • Reasoning patterns were highly context-dependent, with low internal consistency across scenarios (Cronbach’s α = 0.43), suggesting Bayesian reasoning is not a stable trait but situation-specific. 📌 𝗖𝗼𝗻𝗰𝗹𝘂𝘀𝗶𝗼𝗻 Surgeons are capable of Bayesian reasoning but apply it inconsistently depending on the clinical scenario. This highlights opportunities for targeted education focused on probability updating and base rate awareness rather than purely theoretical training. 🔗 Link to the open-acces paper https://lnkd.in/eKaV9vqx Congratulations to the authors: Robert L. Parisien MD, FAAOS, FAANA, Alexander Drost, Amin Razi, Sina Ramtin, David Ring, Stein Janssen #Bayesian #OrthopaedicSurgery #ClinicalDecisionMaking #MedicalEducation #CognitiveBias