Post by Alessandro Leonardi

A basic Voellmy model, instantaneous collapse, and a single homogeneous material for the rock–ice mixture… yet the simulated runout matches observations remarkably well. I simulated the Blatten event, and, even with these simplifications, the runout matched observations very closely. While advanced fully 3D methods can capture detailed internal flow structures, simpler depth-averaged models remain extremely valuable for rapid hazard assessment, back-analysis, and exploring “what if” scenarios. They are fast, easy to calibrate, and, when applied carefully, can provide robust first-order predictions. This has been produced using RASH, a depth-averaged model developed mainly by Marina Pirulli. Thanks also to Brian McArdell at Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research WSL for pointing me to the right source for the topographical data that helped me run this test. #Blatten #RockIceAvalanche #Simulation #NaturalHazards #Geohazards #HazardAssessment

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