Post by Alejandro Mora Eugenio

Sharing this BCG white paper — "The Shock That Reframed Energy Security and the Importance of Biofuels" — because it finally puts in writing what many of us have argued from the desk for years: biofuels stopped being only a climate story the moment the Strait of Hormuz closed. BCG's sharpest point: the "green premium" isn't only a climate cost. A big slice of it is an insurance premium — for energy sovereignty and price stability. You never feel you overpaid for insurance until the house is on fire. Three things that stuck with me: 🔹 It wasn't an oil shock, it was a systems shock — one corridor repriced crude, ~20% of global LNG, petrochemicals and fertilizers at once. 🔹 Biofuels won't replace Hormuz volumes, but they cushion the blow: the IEA reckons they already cut transport-fuel import dependence by 5–15 points in importing countries. 🔹 The fertilizer spike (urea ~+46% MoM) pushes feedstock strategy from crops toward wastes and residues — UCO, animal fats, advanced pathways. My read from the molecule side: electrons where you can, renewable molecules where you can't. The "second molecular system" BCG describes isn't a slide — it's a procurement, certification and logistics problem someone has to actually execute. That execution is where the real competitive advantage lies. Do you read the green premium as a cost — or as insurance you're glad to hold the day a chokepoint shuts? #Biofuels #EnergySecurity #HVO #RenewableFuels #Biodiesel