Oslo, Oslo, Norway
Leading the Norwegian Defence Research Establishment (FFI)'s work on global strategic trends. Interested in where the world is heading and how to analyse it. Currently writing my PhD on the potential and limits of prediction in defence planning, based on a forecasting tournament I organised between 2017 and 2020.
I have been working on two main topics: I) Military foresight and long-term defence planning: Since 2013, I have been leading a military foresight project analysing global stategic trends from a Norwegian military perspective. This includes the future development of key actors (Russia, NATO, USA, UN, China and non-state actors) and regions (Arctic, Nordic region, Europe, Middle East and North Africa, and Sub-Saharan Africa). In relation to this work I have developed a particular interest for methodological pitfalls during threat assessments and defence planning. More specifically, how military foresight can be done more accurately by drawing on cognitive psychology and lessons from the literature on military transformation. Between 2017 and 2020 I conducted a forecasting tournament for the Norwegian defence and security policy establishment. Since 2021 I have been working on the results from this tournament, as a PhD candidate. II) Military interventions to protect civilians from atrocities: Since 2012, I have been researching the question of what military forces can (and cannot) do to physically protect civilians in different operations. The outcome of this research has been the identification of seven generic scenarios, which capture the scope of situations military forces may be expected to protect civilians from different types of threats (genocide, ethnic cleansing, regime crackdown, post-conflict revenge, communal conflict, predatory violence, and insurgency). These scenarios have been used to develop situation-specific guidance for military staffs involved in operations where protection of civilians is an objective. This work is currently included in UN and NATO policies, doctrines and guidance.